Morocco’s September 2025 CPI: Annual Inflation Moderates to 0.4%, Underscoring Macroeconomic Stability

Moroccan macroeconomic indicators | inflation dynamics | emerging market risk assessment | portfolio implications

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Morocco registered a year-over-year increase of 0.4% in September 2025, reflecting contained inflationary pressures that support a favorable environment for fixed-income and equity allocations in North African portfolios.

Month-over-month, the CPI advanced by 0.2% from August 2025, attributable to balanced contributions from both food and non-food components, each rising 0.2%. This subdued trajectory aligns with Morocco’s resilient supply chain dynamics and prudent monetary policy, offering global asset managers reassurance on inflation pass-through risks.

Within the food basket, upward price movements were concentrated in vegetables (+2.6%), fruits (+0.5%), meats (+0.4%), and modest gains in bread and cereals, dairy products, and coffee/tea/cocoa (each +0.1%). Offsetting these were declines in oils and fats (-2.1%), fish and seafood (-0.6%), and mineral waters, soft drinks, and juices (-0.3%), highlighting seasonal and commodity-driven volatility that remains well-contained.

Non-food items saw a notable pullback in fuel prices (-2.2%), providing a tailwind for transportation costs and broader consumer spending—key levers for Morocco’s domestic demand-led growth narrative, which appeals to institutional investors targeting consumer staples and infrastructure exposure.

Regionally, CPI accelerations were most pronounced in Errachidia (+0.9%), Laâyoune (+0.6%), Rabat (+0.5%), and Casablanca, Dakhla, Guelmim, and Beni-Mellal (each +0.4%), with Marrakech and Settat at +0.2%. Conversely, deflations emerged in Al-Hoceima (-2.4%), Meknès (-0.4%), Fès (-0.3%), Kénitra and Tangier (-0.2% each), and Tétouan (-0.1%), illustrating decentralized price formation that mitigates systemic risks for diversified regional strategies.

On a year-over-year basis, the 0.4% CPI uplift stemmed from a 0.5% rise in food prices and a 0.4% increase in non-food items. Non-food variances ranged from a -2.4% contraction in transportation to a +2.9% expansion in restaurants and hotels, underscoring sector-specific opportunities for hospitality and logistics-focused funds amid Morocco’s tourism rebound and trade integration.

Core inflation, excluding volatile items and administered prices, held steady month-over-month from August 2025, while advancing 0.3% year-over-year. This stability reinforces Bank Al-Maghrib’s accommodative stance, potentially extending low-rate conditions that enhance yield attractiveness for foreign bondholders and equity investors in a low-inflation regime.

For institutional portfolios, September’s data affirms Morocco’s positioning as a low-volatility emerging market anchor, with muted headline inflation bolstering real return prospects across asset classes. Global funds may view this as a green light for incremental exposure, particularly in light of the Casablanca Stock Exchange’s recent capitalization milestone exceeding USD 100 billion.