HCP Forecast: Morocco’s Growth Seen at 4.7% in Q4 2025 (after 4.3% in Q3)

The national rebound that began in late-2023 is expected to persist into H2-2025. HCP projects real GDP growth of 4.3% YoY in Q3 and an acceleration to 4.7% YoY in Q4, with core inflation below 2% over the period. The current upswing has run for six consecutive quarters, led by non-agriculture activity averaging +4.8% YoY per quarter and peaking at +5.5% in Q2 on broad-based momentum across manufacturing and mining, construction, and hospitality (these sectors contributed ~40% of overall growth). Stronger-than-expected exports (+8.5% in Q2), firmer domestic demand (+9.2%), and household consumption (+5.1%) supported the expansion, alongside improving investment and lower equipment-goods import prices.

After the Q2 surge, Q3 shows a rebalancing: secondary sectors ease to +4.4% YoY (from +7.4%), services to +4.3% (from +4.8%), and headline GDP to +4.3%, amid a softer external backdrop in Europe. Exports decelerate while imports outpace them, widening the trade gap and subtracting –3.7pp from growth; domestic demand remains the key support (+8pp contribution). Investment stays strong (+14.2%), household consumption holds up (+4.1%) with wage measures and easing inflation (CPI +0.4% YoY in Q3).

Financial conditions continue to improve: Bank Al-Maghrib keeps the policy rate at 2.25%, interbank rates align, deposit rates ease (–27 bps YoY), Treasury auction yields fall –72/–72/–76 bps (1/5/10-yr), and the dirham appreciates 1.8% vs EUR and 7.7% vs USD. Credit growth moderates to +6.5% YoY, liquidity needs ease, and official reserves rise +12.6%.

Equities remain resilient: despite profit-taking in September, the market’s uptrend persists; MASI +32.4% YoY in Q3, market cap +35.3%, with leadership from industrial engineering/equipment, transport, mining, tourism & hotels, pharma, electricity, and healthcare; turnover jumps +165.7%.

Q4 drivers: demand abroad looks more supportive as European rates ease; domestically, household purchasing power improves (public/private wage measures and PIT relief). HCP sees services +4.7%, a modest industrial pickup (building materials, autos, electricals), and a sharper construction acceleration adding +0.4pp to growth; consumption could reach +4.4%, and investment +12.6%.

Investor takeaways (CasaNext view): supportive macro, benign core inflation, easier rates, and still-healthy domestic demand justify an overweight tilt to domestic cyclicals (construction materials, engineering, hospitality) and rate-sensitive financials, while monitoring external demand risks and the trade deficit’s drag on growth momentum.