CasaNext Brief — CFG Marchés on Casablanca Stocks: Valuation Fair, Cycle Intact, Select Sectors in Focus

Source context: Boursenews video “Les perspectives de la Bourse de Casablanca avec CFG Marchés,” recorded in Marrakech during the 12th CFG Bank Equity Conference, which brought together c.~28 listed (and regional) issuers and ~110 investors from 15 nationalities. What follows is CasaNext’s professional summary of CFG Marchés’ views shared at the event.

Executive takeaways

• Constructive sentiment despite a healthy pullback. After a multi-month rally, recent volatility is framed by CFG Marchés as a normal, healthy correction that is creating entry points. The underlying uptrend remains intact.

• Valuation ≈ fair value. The market trades close to CFG’s intrinsic estimate: 2025e theoretical PER ~21.8x vs observed ~21.4x (a ~2% gap).

• Rates path supportive. With inflation trending back towards ~1–2% and a gradually improving fiscal deficit, CFG sees a low probability of higher rates over the next 12 months, implying a neutral-to-lower bias for yields and a supportive backdrop for equity multiples.

• Macro catalysts in place. Key supports include a more accommodative monetary stance, the 2030 FIFA World Cup (Morocco–Portugal–Spain) as an investment accelerator, a double-digit YoY earnings mass in 1H25 (adjusted base), and Morocco’s return to investment-grade, which widens the foreign investor universe and improves funding conditions.

Valuation framework and rates logic

CFG’s intrinsic fair value hinges on two levers:

1. Earnings growth expectations for the listed universe; and

2. The risk-free rate (10-year Treasury yield).

   
   

   If rates decline, the theoretical PER expands, mechanically supporting higher fair value estimates. In that setup, Morocco’s historically low structural inflation and the current public/private capex cycle justify a headline PER that screens higher than some peers without being “expensive” on a fundamentals-adjusted basis.

Sector views and named beneficiaries

Construction & Infrastructure (BTP):

• Thesis: A powerful multi-year capex wave—water security, logistics/transport, highways, LGV extensions, and venue/hospitality capacity ahead of AFCON 2025 and World Cup 2030.

• Name cited: TGCC — the acquisition of STA consolidates share and adds linear infrastructure capabilities (roads, earthworks, hydraulics, engineering structures) beyond its historic building/civil footprint.

Banks:

• Thesis: Natural financiers of the capex cycle; also benefit from a post-Covid normalization in cost of risk in a friendlier macro and rates environment.

Technology / Payments:

• Name cited: HPS — transition under the “Accelerate” plan from one-off on-premise licences to SaaS/subscription hosted by HPS, improving recurrence and scale economics. CFG expects the inflection to start in 2H25 and broaden through 2026–2027.

Ports / Maritime logistics:

• Policy frame: National Port Strategy 2030, leveraging 3,500 km of Atlantic/Mediterranean coastline, proximity to Gibraltar, and strong maritime connectivity.

• Projects referenced: Tanger Med (top-20 container hub globally; #1 in the Mediterranean), Nador West Med, Dakhla Atlantique, plus capacity extensions (Safi bulk, Kénitra Atlantique).

• Name cited: Marsa Maroc — ~45% market share ex-transshipment; 20–25-year renewable concessions across 10 ports.

  
  

  • Domestic growth levers: container terminal at Nador West Med (with CMA CGM and TIL/MSC), capacity uplift at Port of Casablanca, and reinforcement of Jorf Lasfar’s multipurpose terminal.

  • Continental expansion: new projects in Liberia, Djibouti, and Benin.

Agri-industry / Irrigation:

• Name cited: CMGP — positioned to benefit from farm infrastructure modernisation, technology adoption, and water/irrigation policy support.

  
  

Healthcare:

• Backdrop: Infrastructure, equipment and staffing catch-up; governance reform (territorial health clusters), AMO generalisation (ex-RAMED to CNSS, end-2022), and a legal framework that opens private investment in clinics.

• Names cited:

  
  

  • Akdital — leading private clinic operator; multi-year capacity build (including oncology), disciplined execution, and geographic expansion (Casablanca, Agadir, Tangier, then tier-2 cities).

  • Vicen — provider of medical equipment/solutions & services for public and private operators; footprint in Morocco and West Africa (Côte d’Ivoire, Senegal).

Tourism / Hospitality:

• Cycle: Successive record arrivals since reopening; roadmap targets ~17.5m in 2026 (vs ~17.4m already reached in 2024) and ~26m by 2030; public support includes CAP Hospitality (2024–2025) to subsidise hotel capex.

• Name cited: Risma — 23 hotels across 11 cities via development, acquisition or lease; consistently refreshed portfolio, seasoned management and diversified product.

  
  

  • To 2030: target ~28 units. Recent moves include completing the acquisition of the company owning Radisson Blu Hotel, Marrakech Carré Eden, plus the Carré Eden mall; and a Tanger plot secured for a future 5-star.

Why the multiple can stay supported

• Earnings breadth: CFG highlights a double-digit expansion in the aggregated earnings mass in 1H25 (adjusted), with cyclical and structural contributors.

• Rates anchor: A dovish-leaning rates outlook (given inflation ~1–2% and fiscal consolidation) is consistent with stable-to-expanding fair-value multiples.

• Investment-grade status: Broadens the addressable foreign pool and lowers the cost of capital for sovereign and corporates, reinforcing flows on dips.

CasaNext view — what to watch

• Rates and inflation prints: Confirmation of the disinflation path and any policy-rate moves are the key swing variables for the PER.

• Execution on capex programmes: Tendering cadence and ground-breaking milestones across water, transport, ports and LGV.

• Company-specific catalysts:

  
  

  • TGCC/STA integration synergies and backlog quality.

  • HPS SaaS ARR traction and margin mix.

  • Marsa Maroc ramp at Nador West Med and African concessions.

  • Akdital opening schedule, case-mix shift (oncology), and payor dynamics.

  • Risma pipeline conversion and RevPAR trends into AFCON/2030.

Editor’s note: This CasaNext article summarises views expressed by CFG Marchés during the 12th CFG Bank Equity Conference as reported by Boursenews. Figures (e.g., PER 2025e 21.4–21.8x) and sector/company references reflect CFG Marchés’ commentary at the event. This is not investment advice.