Casablanca Stock Exchange: Three Scenarios for the Week of 15 September 2025

After an extraordinary eleven consecutive weeks of gains, the Casablanca Stock Exchange closed last week with its first decline in nearly three months, the MASI retreating by -1.29%. The benchmark oscillated within a wide band between 19,521 and 20,141 points, ultimately ending near 19,829 on Friday. This cooling comes against the backdrop of subdued inflation, a key rate held at 2.25%, and market participants awaiting the Bank Al-Maghrib meeting on 23 September.

Looking ahead to the week of 15 September, three scenarios frame the possible evolution of the market.

1. Consolidation and Sideways Trading (Range: 19,600–20,050)

The most probable case is a continuation of last week’s consolidation. Following an extended rally, investor positioning often shifts towards digestion, especially in an environment of lighter volumes and cautious sentiment. Support around 19,520–19,600 remains technically relevant, while resistance is seen at 20,000–20,140, last week’s upper bound. In such a scenario, stock-picking will dominate, with attention on financials, infrastructure, and consumer staples.

2. Resumption of the Rally (Target: 20,100–20,300)

A second scenario sees momentum returning, with the MASI re-testing and potentially surpassing the 20,000 threshold. Drivers could include positive spillover from global risk markets, renewed interest in bank and industrial stocks, and optimism surrounding the pipeline of primary market operations. The recent Vicenne IPO and the regulator’s emphasis on capital-market development continue to anchor sentiment, while the Casablanca Stock Exchange prepares to introduce derivatives trading “within weeks”, promising to deepen liquidity. A decisive close above 20,000 would put the 20,140–20,300 zone back into focus.

3. Pre-BAM Correction (Dip: 19,300–19,500)

The less likely, but still plausible, scenario is further downside pressure ahead of the Bank Al-Maghrib’s 23 September policy meeting. With global risk appetite fragile and local liquidity thin, investors may adopt a defensive stance. A break below 19,520 would open the way towards the 19,300s, prompting flows into cash-rich and dividend-paying names while cyclicals and builders absorb the bulk of selling pressure.

Outlook

The Casablanca market enters mid-September at a crossroads: either consolidating its gains, reclaiming the 20,000-point milestone, or correcting further into the mid-19,000s. With monetary policy stability and structural reforms (derivatives, IPO momentum) in the background, the balance of probabilities still favors resilient consolidation with selective upside risk.

For investors, the coming week is less about directionality and more about positioning ahead of the central bank meeting—with careful attention to key technical levels and sector rotation.