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Casablanca Stock Exchange: Listed Companies Set to Post Record Profits in 2025


CasaNext FinCorp | BMCE Capital Global Research Forecast – October 2025

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Morocco’s equity market is on track to deliver its strongest corporate earnings performance in history. According to the latest research note from BMCE Capital Global Research, the aggregate profits of listed companies are projected to reach MAD 41.2 billion in 2025, breaking the MAD 40 billion threshold for the first time. This represents a robust 30.8% increase compared with 2024, underpinned by broad-based revenue growth and the fading of exceptional one-off impacts.


Key Financial Highlights


  • Aggregate Revenue: Expected to climb 7.3% to MAD 299.5 billion, supported by gains across all major sectors — financials (+6.6%), industry (+7.3%), and insurance (+9.2%).

  • Operating Income: Forecast to expand 14.7% to MAD 84.3 billion, boosted by sector normalization following the resolution of the IAM–WANA (INWI) dispute.

  • Net Profit (RNPG): Even after excluding exceptional effects, profits would still rise 12.3% to MAD 39.9 billion.


Sectoral Drivers


  • Telecommunications (≈ 46% of profit growth): Momentum driven by the final settlement of the IAM/INWI litigation and the restitution of MAD 1.34 billion in H1.

  • Banking (≈ 25.9%): Strong contribution from a more accommodative monetary policy and effective risk-cost management.

  • Construction & Materials (BTP): Supported by the rebound in the construction sector and robust cement demand.


Conversely, gas and petrochemical companies are expected to weigh on aggregate results due to margin compression and higher financing costs.


Macro Backdrop


BMCE Capital notes several supportive macro factors:


  • The monetary easing cycle initiated by Bank Al-Maghrib in March 2025 continues to reinforce lending margins and market activity.

  • Investment momentum remains firm, particularly in equipment financing.

  • Inflation is contained, while consumption is gradually recovering thanks to public housing programs and the twin catalysts of AFCON 2025 and the 2030 World Cup.


However, heightened tax audits and the proposed super-profits tax could temporarily constrain bottom-line growth for certain issuers.


Valuation & Dividend Outlook


The aggregate P/E ratio for the BMCE Capital “Scope 40” universe is projected to stay around 21.3× in 2025, then ease to 19.8× in 2026 as earnings expand. The Casablanca market therefore remains below its five-year average valuation, offering room for further appreciation — particularly after the recent MASI correction.


Total dividend distributions are forecast to rise 23.7% to MAD 25.4 billion, led by IAM. Meanwhile, the average dividend yield is expected to edge down slightly to 2.9%, reflecting increased market capitalization.



2026 Outlook


Earnings momentum is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace:


  • Revenue: MAD 323.9 billion (+8.2%)

  • Operating income: MAD 91.3 billion (+8.3%)

  • RNPG: MAD 44.4 billion (+7.7%)


These projections suggest that Moroccan listed corporates are entering a sustained earnings-growth cycle, supported by stable macro fundamentals, normalized monetary conditions, and renewed investor confidence.


What It Means for Investors


  • Equity Re-rating Potential: Valuations remain below historical averages despite record profits — an opportunity for selective accumulation.

  • Sector Rotation: Telecoms and Banks are likely to remain core performance anchors, while construction materials could benefit from post-AFCON infrastructure demand.

  • Yield Strategy: Dividend growth (+23.7%) adds appeal for income-oriented portfolios, even as yields moderate.

  • Macro Tailwinds: Monetary easing, FDI inflows, and global event hosting reinforce Morocco’s investment-grade momentum and market depth.


 
 
 
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