Attijariwafa Bank: BKGR Raises Price Target to MAD 900, Maintains “Buy” — Report September 2025

BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR) has affirmed its “Buy” recommendation on Attijariwafa Bank and raised its price target to MAD 900, implying ~16.5% upside relative to the share price of MAD 772 on September 12, 2025.

In the first half of 2025, the bank’s outstanding loans grew by 0.9% to MAD 417.4 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5%. BKGR expects loan growth to accelerate to +8% in 2025 and +7% in 2026, driven by major infrastructure projects related to the 2030 World Cup and investments in Sub-Saharan Africa.

On the deposit front, growth was stronger: deposits rose by 1.3% to MAD 486.8 billion, an 8% YoY increase. BKGR forecasts deposit growth of 9% in 2025 and 8% in 2026, reinforcing Attijariwafa’s position as a leading national savings collector.

The Net Banking Income (PNB) reached MAD 17.7 billion in H1 2025, up +4%, supported by a +5% rise in net interest margin and a +6.5% increase in commission income. For full-year 2025, BKGR projects PNB of MAD 36.4 billion (+5.4%), rising to MAD 38.1 billion in 2026.

BKGR highlights disciplined expense control: operating expenses increased just +3.5% in H1, improving the cost-to-income ratio to 35.3%; for 2026, they expect this to stabilize around 36%.

Risk costs declined sharply: cost of risk dropped by 36.8% to MAD 1.39 billion, reducing the risk ratio to 0.78% in 2025, with a projected 0.75% in 2026. This betterment aided the net profit (RNPG), which rose +19.8% to MAD 5.9 billion in H1. BKGR forecasts a full-year net profit of MAD 10.8 billion in 2025 (+13.3%) and MAD 11.4 billion in 2026 (+6.1%).

In terms of valuation, BKGR estimates a 2025 P/E of 15.4× and 14.5× for 2026, both below sector averages. The dividend yield is projected at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with DPS of MAD 23 and 24, respectively.

What It Means for Investors:

This revision underscores BKGR’s confidence in Attijariwafa Bank’s resilience and growth resilience, built on solid fundamentals, control of costs, and improving asset quality. The bank appears well-positioned to benefit from Morocco’s structural capex wave and the 2030 World Cup cycle. The upgraded price target and maintained “Buy” stance reinforce its status as a core defensive-cyclic stock in Moroccan bank exposure.