Akdital: Saham Bank Maintains Buy Rating with MAD 1,700 Target, Implying 23% Upside Potential

Moroccan healthcare equities | analyst coverage updates | emerging market growth catalysts | valuation-driven opportunities

Saham Bank analysts have reiterated their Buy recommendation on Akdital shares, setting a price target of MAD 1,700—representing an attractive 23% premium to current levels around MAD 1,360—and affirming the group’s entrenched positioning in Morocco’s expanding private healthcare ecosystem, a sector primed for structural tailwinds amid rising demand and international diversification.

This reaffirmation, derived from recent management consultations, underscores Akdital’s resilient growth trajectory, with sustained revenue expansion and progressive margin accretion supporting a compelling risk-reward profile for global healthcare-focused funds and EM equity allocators seeking defensive alpha in North Africa.

Valuation and Growth Outlook

Trading at a modest multiple reflective of its operational leverage, Akdital’s valuation embeds a +23% upside to the MAD 1,700 target, calibrated on sustained top-line momentum and deleveraging dynamics. Net debt remains comfortably below 3x EBITDA, a prudent threshold that affords fiscal flexibility for accretive expansions without compromising balance sheet integrity.

The 2025–2028 investment program, totaling MAD 8.8 billion and underpinned by projected self-financing capacity of MAD 5.4 billion, positions the group to capitalize on demographic-driven healthcare utilization, with capex efficiency bolstering free cash flow conversion for dividend sustainability and opportunistic M&A.

International Acceleration as a Key Catalyst

Akdital is fast-tracking its global footprint, highlighted by the lease-management contract for Riyadh’s Al Mishari Hospital—a €30 million (MAD ~330 million) greenfield venture fully funded off-balance sheet. Ramp-up projections envision revenues scaling to MAD 300 million in the debut year, escalating to MAD 375 million by 2026, with EBITDA margins targeting 25% near-term and 30% in steady-state operations.

By 2034, international operations could account for ~40% of consolidated revenues and 30% of EBITDA, diversifying revenue streams beyond domestic confines and mitigating regulatory risks through geographic breadth— a narrative that enhances ESG appeal for institutional mandates prioritizing resilient, impact-aligned exposures.

Capital Structure and Funding Dynamics

An anticipated MAD 1.2 billion bond issuance, pending AMMC approval, will fuel this overseas thrust without recourse to dilutive equity raises over the next 2–3 years. Strategic “Propco” vehicle deployments further alleviate cash strain from asset-heavy investments, preserving liquidity for core clinical advancements and shareholder returns.

Analyst Rationale Amid Recent Volatility

Post-engagement insights dismiss short-term headwinds—ranging from share price turbulence and the “GenZ 212” market stir, ministerial announcements, temporary clinic closures, to the pending bond—as non-material to the investment thesis. Facility pauses stem from routine technical upgrades and strategic reconfigurations, with international activation now advanced to 2026 (versus prior 2027 guidance).

Saham Bank has effected only marginal forecast tweaks, upholding core growth assumptions and the MAD 1,700 target. “The group upholds a robust pathway, anchored by disciplined financial stewardship and substantial international leverage. Recent volatility episodes fail to undermine the core investment rationale,” the note concludes, while noting potential tailwinds from ministerial tariff adjustments in high-acuity segments like ICU and critical care.

For foreign institutional investors, Akdital exemplifies Morocco’s maturing healthcare privatization wave, offering a blend of yield stability and growth convexity within the Casablanca Stock Exchange’s USD 100+ billion ecosystem—ideal for sector rotations amid the MASI’s +31% YTD surge.