Sonasid: BKGR Enters Buying Cycle, Driven by Steelmaker's New Growth Cycle
Stocks
Sonasid is embarking on a new strategic cycle marked by a strengthening of its operational profile and a progressive transformation of its model, according to the latest note from BMCE Capital Global Research.
After a breakout year in 2025, the steelmaker now boasts strengthened fundamentals, driven by a 17% increase in sales volumes and a significant rebound in margins, with a profitability rate of nearly 10% compared to 7% a year ago.
This performance reflects both a favorable domestic environment and the successful execution of the 2021-2025 strategic plan.
The group is now entering a new phase of development through a 2026-2030 roadmap backed by a 1.5 billion dirham investment program.
The goal is no longer solely to grow volumes, but to improve the quality of the product mix with a target EBITDA of around 1 billion dirhams by 2030.
This strategy relies on the development of new high-value-added segments, including pre-tensioned toron, automotive steel, and metal recycling.
By 2030, these drivers should account for nearly 40% of EBITDA, reflecting a deep repositioning of the economic model.
In this context, BKGR anticipates continued revenue growth, reaching 6.7 billion dirhams in 2026 and 7.17 billion in 2027, driven by the dynamics of the domestic market and the progressive contribution of new activities.
Profitability is also expected to continue improving, with an EBITDA margin expected to exceed 10% by 2026, driven by operational excellence gains and the progressive integration of new businesses.
Net income is expected to follow the same trajectory, with a 335 million dirham increase in 2026, confirming better conversion of operational performance.
Towards a more resilient growth profile
While Sonasid remains exposed to the cyclical nature of the steel sector, linked to domestic demand and input prices, the transformation underway should gradually mitigate this volatility.
The strengthening of high-value-added activities, combined with the reduction of standard product weight, should improve the quality of the margin profile and strengthen the group's overall resilience.
In this context, BKGR raises its recommendation to 'Buy' with a target price of 2,845 dirhams, offering a potential upside of 35.5% compared to the 4 May 2026 closing price.
Despite the ramp-up of the new investment plan, Sonasid should maintain an attractive dividend policy, with a dividend yield estimated at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.